John Farley Spotlight: A Look at the US Open Series Results

With the US Open about to begin this week, I wanted to review the results of the US Open Series (I included Washington) in some quantitative way to see who is going to blow into Flushing Meadows with the most wind in her sails. The winners of each tournament of the series have some obvious momentum: Keys in Stanford, Makarova in DC, Svitolina at the Rogers Cup in Toronto, Muguruza in Cincinnati, and Gavrilova in New Haven. However, to take a broader look at the results in the US Open Series of the WTA top ten plus a few other in-form and possible contenders, I devised this chart below that quantifies these players' results in the series. To be included in the analysis a player had to play in at least two of the tournaments. I awarded points, R32-Winner, to each for each tournament based upon how they fared. Points were awarded accordingly:

Winner - 10
Finalist - 9
Semifinalist - 8
Quarterfinalist - 7
R16 - 6
R32 - 5
R64 - 0

The points were tallied and then a points per tournament figured calculated. Additional points were added to the points per tournament to produce a final index for ranking and comparison. The additional points added were: 0.5 added if the player played 3 tournaments indicating match readiness going into Flushing Meadows and another 0.5 points added if the player made at least the quarterfinals in each tournament played indicating higher consistency in play. The results of these calculations are presented in the table below:

Player/Tourn.	Stanford	Washington	Toronto	Cincinnati	New Haven	Total Points	Pts. per Tourn.	Final Index
Muguruza	Semi		QF	Win		25	8.3	9.3
Halep		QF	Semi	Final		24	8.0	9.0
Wozniacki			Final	QF		16	8.0	8.5
Keys	Win			R16		16	8.0	8.0
Pliskova			QF	Semi		15	7.5	8.0
Svitolina			Win	R16		16	8.0	8.0
Makarova		Win	R16	R16		22	7.3	7.8
Cibulkova			R32	R16	Final	20	6.7	7.2
Kvitova	QF		R32	R32		17	5.7	6.2
Konta			R32	QF		12	6.0	6.0
Kuznetsova			R32	QF		12	6.0	6.0
Kerber			R16	R32		11	5.5	5.5
Williams			R16	R32		11	5.5	5.5
Radwanska			R16	R64	Semi	14	4.7	5.2
Vandeweghe	Final		R64	R64		9	3.0	3.5

(Note: The Connecticut Open final between Gavrilova and Cibulkova was spectacular. They both played well but Gavrilova's play was extraordinarily good. I didn't include Gavrilova in the chart, but if I had she would have 20 points and a 7.2 index, the same as Cibulkova. If she continues that level of play she's a definite candidate for the second week of the US Open fortnight.)

The US Open first-round draw for these players:

Muguruza - Lepchenko
Halep - Sharapova
Wozniacki - Buzarnescu
Keys - Mertens
Pliskova - Linette
Svitolina - Siniakova
Makarova - Bartel
Cibulkova - Cepelova
Kvitova - Jankovic
Konta - Krunic
Kuznetsova - Vondrousova
Kerber - Osaka
Williams - Kuzmova
Radwanska - Martic
Vandeweghe - Riske
(Gavrilova - Kiick)

First, I want to say, I don't make predictions, as enticing as it is to do. Did you pick Kerber to win two slams last year or Ostapenko to win the French this year? Did you pick Muguruza, coming off a disappointing post-Roland Garros 2016 period, to win Wimbledon? Risky business these days making predictions in the WTA. Although the chart indicates various degrees of momentum coming into the US Open and is interesting to see the perspective that it gives, it really means nothing considering recent experience with the slams. So, in a way, this post, like the Seinfeld Show, is a post about nothing. But it does hold some significance for me because in my most recent post, "The End of a Dynasty and the Rise of Garbine Muguruza," I wrote this:

"With the defeat of the matriarch of a dynasty of dominance in women's tennis at Wimbledon 2017, a definitive symbol of the arc of change, the mantle has been formally passed to a new age of players, and, I arguably believe, standing at the peak of the new contours of the landscape of this change is Garbine Muguruza. On the horizon to challenge her are the returns of Serena and Sharapova and the recent return of Azarenka, but I feel them slipping into the dusk of a former time. In her top ten neighborhood are the new #1 Pliskova, Halep, Kerber, Konta, Svitolina, Venus, and others both established and on the rise to test her mettle. And in the upcoming US swing that mettle will be tested. However, if Muguruza can maintain in those tournaments that level she displayed in getting to the Wimbledon final and winning the last nine games to win the title, she will past the test and roll into Flushing Meadows riding a wave that may take her to another title. Those are big ifs, but she has put together now a game that can do it. I really feel she is slowly being blessed with that indomitable specialness we see in the perennial champions - Serena, Venus, Federer, Nadal, and all the others in the past of that ilk, and will emerge as the new dominant force in women's tennis."

So you see the significance for me. Her mettle has been tested during the US Open series and she sits at the top of the chart. If she wins the US Open, I believe she has then unequivocally passed the test of mettle and established herself as the new dominant force in women's tennis. She has drawn Lepchenko, as you read, in the first round of the US Open.

What does it all mean? Ya Da Ya Da Ya Da.

Anyway, that's how I see it.